The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) released its September results earlier this week. I am happy to report that September sales totalled 8,196, representing an increase of 28% compared with the same month last year. The growth in the average selling price was even stronger, coming in at 10%, pushing the average price to almost $407,000. The year-to-date totals are also positive, with sales and average price through the first three quarters of the year up 4.5% and 1.5% respectively. This is encouraging, given this past year's economic challenges.

I asked Jason Mercer, TREB's senior manager of market analysis, if he thought we would continue to see positive results in the fourth quarter.

"The number of existing home sales in the fourth quarter will be well ahead of the volumes experienced during the last three months of 2008," he told me. "I am confident that the number of transactions will push through the 80,000 mark and perhaps be hovering around 85,000 when all is said and done this year. That will put us in line with the level of sales experienced in the 2004 to 2006 period - some of the best years on record under the current TREB boundaries."

It is also Mr. Mercer's opinion that the average selling price will be above last year's as well.
"The resale home market has tightened up substantially since the spring. Sales, our measure of demand, have risen strongly relative to listings, our measure of supply. The result has been an increasing rate of price growth. The average price for 2009 will be hovering around $390,000 - up by approximately 2.5% compared to 2008."

Interest rate decisions by the Bank of Canada over the past year clearly played a role in keeping the housing market buoyant in the face of a recession. Interest rates moving to record lows only served to help an already affordable GTA housing market. Enhanced affordability served to attract a broad array of home buyers. This is why we have seen more transactions in virtually all price ranges and all major housing types across the region.

In September, low-rise home sales (including single-detached, semi-detached and townhouses) grew by 25% compared to last year. High-rise condominium sales were up an impressive 34% over last year. The average annual rate of price growth for both high- and low-rise home types was more or less the same.

The fact that the recovery in the GTA housing market has occurred in all sectors of the housing market - from housing types and prices catering to first-time buyers through to higher-end properties selling for more than $1-million - suggests that the housing market is once again firing on all cylinders after a relatively short downturn. This speaks to the fact that consumers have remained confident in ownership housing as a solid long-term investment.

- The National Post